Geopolitical Shocks and Global Talent Flows: How US Technology Export Controls Reshape Skilled Labor Mobility into and Out of China
This project investigates how U.S. technology export controls reshape cross-border skilled labor mobility involving China. It develops a task-based theory of firm adjustment, arguing that export restrictions reduce reliance on foreign talent in automation-prone roles while increasing demand for international experts in innovation-intensive sectors. Using a proprietary dataset of 110,000 cross-border job transitions involving China, the study analyzes how export controls alter the direction and composition of talent flows and how this relationship is mediated by occupational task composition and AI exposure. This project seeks to contribute to the international political economy literature by providing new evidence on whether geopolitical tensions reshape global knowledge networks, not just trade and investment flows.
